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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."